Glossary
What is Outcome bias
An evaluation error: a winning trade is judged good, a losing one bad. A correct trade by plan can lose, a rule break can win.
How it works
SOL 15m, 10.11.2025: an entry without an MSS — and the target was hit. A broken rule, a positive result.
Example
An entry at the sweep candle's close, 166.38, without an MSS, stop 166.11. The 168.92 target was hit — +9.4R. A rule break that closed in profit is luck, not a reason to change the rule.
Common mistake
Changing a rule after one stop or praising a rule break for its profit.
Read next
Related terms
Frequently asked questions
- Where can I learn Outcome bias step by step?
- In the Trading OS Academy: “The result is not the excuse”.
- What is Outcome bias related to?
- Sample size; Pact; Trade review.
Plan versus outcome — for every trade
The Trading OS journal keeps the planned RR and the actual R of each trade side by side and computes expectancy from real results.
No sign-up — the journal runs in your browser; an account is only needed for sync.