Glossary
What Is Expectancy (Average Trade Result) in Trading
The average result of one trade in R, wins and losses included. Positive over a large sample means the system earns on average; negative means it loses, however many wins there are.
How it works
Expectancy is the average result of a trade in R, calculated across a whole series of trades at once, wins and losses together. The formula is simple: sum every trade's result in R and divide by the number of trades. Positive expectancy means each trade earns the system money on average, even if individual trades lose.
Expectancy ties win rate and average win/loss size into a single number: you can also calculate it as (win rate × average winning R) minus (loss rate × average losing R). That's why a high win rate with tiny expectancy can lose to a lower win rate with large expectancy.
It's expectancy, not win rate or any one big trade, that determines whether a system makes money over the long run. Negative expectancy means the same behavior will keep bleeding the account no matter how many winning trades show up in the short term.
Example
Across 20 trades, the results sum to +14R. Expectancy = 14 / 20 = 0.7R per trade. That means each trade in this system earns 0.7R of profit on average.
Common mistake
A common mistake is calculating expectancy from a tiny sample, say 10 trades, and drawing long-term conclusions from it. Randomness at that sample size can easily produce a falsely high or falsely low number.
Read next
Related terms
Frequently asked questions
- What counts as good expectancy?
- Any consistently positive value across 50–100+ trades already signals a working system; the exact number matters less than its stability over time.
- How is expectancy different from profit factor?
- Expectancy is the average result of one trade in R, while profit factor is the ratio of total profit to total loss; they describe the same system from different angles.
Plan versus outcome — for every trade
The Trading OS journal keeps the planned RR and the actual R of each trade side by side and computes expectancy from real results.
No sign-up — the journal runs in your browser; an account is only needed for sync.